Ivan Oelrich

Articles by Ivan Oelrich

1 July 2014

In an international confrontation, nuclear weapons can provide leverage even if they are not used. The leverage comes from threats of use or increased risk of use.

19 April 2012

Restarting nuclear talks with Iran: Old problems, some new hopes

Ivan Oelrich

After a hiatus of 15 months, Iran and the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany, called the P5+1, met in Istanbul to discuss Iran's nuclear program. Relations between Iran and the major powers have become so sour that, when the meetings ended, all sides viewed agreement to simply meet again next month in Baghdad as a major diplomatic triumph.

1 January 2012
US–Russian nuclear arms control efforts should seek to limit not just numbers of weapons but nuclear missions as well, the most dangerous being “counterforce,” or an attack on enemy nuclear weapons before they can be launched.
9 December 2011

Hold your fire: Nuclear forces without counterforce

Ivan Oelrich

In April 2009, President Barack Obama outlined his vision for a world free of nuclear weapons before thousands of enthusiastic people in Prague's Hradcany Square. Development of the nation's new nuclear doctrine, documented in the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), was subject to intense speculation in the popular press and, when the document was finally released -- for the first time unclassified in its entirety -- it became, if only briefly, a hot topic of political debate.

25 July 2011

How to avoid a new arms race

Ivanka BarzashkaTimur KadyshevGöetz Neuneck Ivan Oelrich

US missile defense deployments in Europe, now the nucleus of a NATO system to protect alliance European territory against emerging missile threats, have long worried Russia: After all, an effective missile defense has the potential to undermine Russia's nuclear retaliatory capability against the United States.

19 May 2010

Deconstructing the meaning of Iran's 20 percent uranium enrichment

Ivan OelrichIvanka Barzashka

On February 11, the 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad delivered the "sweet" news that Iran had successfully produced 20 percent enriched uranium. More than anything, the announcement served as Iran's response to the stalemate over purchasing fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor that is used, in part, to produce medical isotopes.

19 March 2010

There's still nothing new on Iran

Ivan OelrichIvanka Barzashka

The International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) February report on Iran, the first under the agency's new director-general, Yukiya Amano, has created quite a stir.

23 November 2009

A technical evaluation of the Fordow fuel enrichment plant

Ivan OelrichIvanka Barzashka

Editor's note: Since the publication of this article, the authors and David Albright and Paul Brannan of the Institute for Science and International Security have had a lively online exchange disagreeing over estimates for the enrichment capabilities of Iran's IR-1 centrifuges. A discussion about this debate by Bulletin columnist Joshua Pollack can be found on the blog, Arms Control Wonk.

1 May 2005
The United States is considering relaxing export controls so it can share missile defense technology with its friends–a move that could help its enemies.