Analysis | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Germany's slowing nuclear phaseout

Len Ackland — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 09:32:55 -0800

Eight years ago, a German coalition government comprised of Social Democrats and Greens passed legislation phasing out the country's nuclear power plants, which provide one-quarter of German electricity, after roughly 32 years of operation. Given that schedule, at least two of the country's 17 nuclear reactors should be shutting down this year.

Nuclear weapons: The modernization myth

Kingston Reif — Tue, 08 Dec 2009 11:44:23 -0800

The belief that the United States is the only declared nuclear power that isn't modernizing its nuclear arsenal is fast becoming an article of faith in nuclear weapon policy circles. As Arizona Republican Sen. Jon Kyl put it last summer, "Every nuclear weapons power--with the exception of the United States--is currently modernizing its nuclear weapons and weapons delivery systems."

Enhancing cooperation between the health and climate sectors

Clive Mutunga — Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:01:45 -0800

According to World Health Organization (WHO) estimates, climate change may already be causing more than 150,000 deaths per year, a number that is expected to grow in the future.

Despite economic downturn, nuclear energy commerce is still worrisome

Karthika Sasikumar — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 09:50:21 -0800

At the beginning of 2008, the nuclear power industry's euphoria over the much-hyped "nuclear renaissance" was in full swing. But as that year drew to a close, the hopes for a revival seemed delayed, if not derailed, due to faltering world economies. Little has changed this year to alter that prospect. As the global financial crisis has continued, demand for energy has plummeted along with the world's stock markets. Such news may help calm international security experts, who fear that a proliferation of nuclear energy know-how could lead to nuclear weapons proliferation.

A technical evaluation of the Fordow fuel enrichment plant

Ivan Oelrich — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 14:36:15 -0800

Editor's note: Since the publication of this article, the authors and David Albright and Paul Brannan of the Institute for Science and International Security have had a lively online exchange disagreeing over estimates for the enrichment capabilities of Iran's IR-1 centrifuges. A discussion about this debate by Bulletin columnist Joshua Pollack can be found on the blog, Arms Control Wonk.

The status of U.S. nuclear weapons in Turkey

Alexandra Bell — Mon, 23 Nov 2009 12:47:06 -0800

For more than 40 years, Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons. During the Cold War, Washington positioned intermediate-range nuclear missiles and bombers there to serve as a bulwark against the Soviet Union (i.e., to defend the region against Soviet attack and to influence Soviet strategic calculations). In the event of a Soviet assault on Europe, the weapons were to be fired as one of the first retaliatory shots. But as the Cold War waned, so, too, did the weapons' strategic value.

After Kim Jong-il

Mun Suk Ahn — Mon, 16 Nov 2009 08:20:44 -0800

On June 1, members of the South Korean National Assembly's Intelligence Committee received some clarity about who would replace Kim Jong-il as North Korea's leader. A high official in Seoul's National Intelligence Service informed them that Kim had designated his 26-year-old third son, Kim Jong-un, as his successor. According to the National Intelligence Service, Kim Jong-il had ordered the North's military, politicians, and officials in overseas missions to swear allegiance to Kim Jong-un after Pyongyang's May nuclear test. This succession plan wasn't entirely surprising.

The other Berlin Wall: How the Soviet bioweapons program was revealed

David E. Hoffman — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 11:01:32 -0800

When the Berlin Wall came down November 9, 1989, the decades-long division of Europe was over. But there was another event, just two weeks before, that also broke down barriers and changed the course of the Cold War. In the last week of October, the director of the Soviet All-Union Institute of Ultra-Pure Biological Preparations, Vladimir Pasechnik, was on a business trip to France. He used a phone booth in Paris to call the British Embassy and offered to defect. The British Secret Intelligence Service responded with alacrity, and Pasechnik was soon on his way to London.

Bringing climate change into global governance

Paul R. Epstein — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 10:09:15 -0800

Little can happen in this world without economic support. So it follows that little will happen in the climate realm until the international financial architecture is revamped to drive positive climate change responses, including increased energy efficiency and robust renewable energy programs.

India and the CTBT: The debate in New Delhi

A. Vinod Kumar — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 08:19:59 -0800

President Barack Obama's decision to revive the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) has triggered a flurry of discussions in New Delhi, where individuals in the strategic and scientific communities are now vigorously debating India's options. One notable outcome of the debate so far is the realization that India's approach to the CTBT today will be radically different from its approach in 1996, when New Delhi was unanimously opposed to the treaty (and was not yet a de facto nuclear weapon state).

Obama's missile defense rethink: The Czech reaction

Blanka Hančilová — Tue, 06 Oct 2009 07:47:19 -0700

The reactions of Czech politicians to the September 17 announcement that the United States will shelve its plans for a radar in the Czech Republic as part of its European missile defense system varied from charges of betrayal to warm acceptance. In general, Prague focused on the political fallout of the decision, rather than the system's technical shortcomings, which U.S. President Barack Obama cited as one of the key reasons for scrapping it.

The U.S.-India nuclear deal--one year later

J. Sri Raman — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 12:02:10 -0700

October 8 marks the one-year anniversary of former President George W. Bush signing into law the so-called U.S.-India nuclear deal. The deal proved controversial from its inception because it ended a 34-year U.S. ban on nuclear trade with India, a non-signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). And yet despite heavy criticism of the deal--especially from arms control and disarmament advocates--one year later, it appears solidly entrenched as long-term policy.

Obama's missile defense rethink: The Polish reaction

Marek Madej — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 08:43:46 -0700

In order to understand the reaction of the Polish government, political elites, and public to President Barack Obama's decision to discontinue the U.S. missile defense plan in Eastern Europe, one has to remember why Warsaw had engaged in talks with Washington in the first place. It wasn't the anti-missile shield specifically, since the main U.S. goals of the project--to defend U.S. territory, U.S. forces, and the territory of U.S. allies against a long-range ballistic missile attack from the likes of Iran--weren't equally as important to Poland.

The lasting toll of Semipalatinsk's nuclear testing

Togzhan Kassenova — Mon, 28 Sep 2009 13:56:46 -0700

During the rainy, windy early morning of August 29, 1949, the Soviet Union conducted its first nuclear explosion--code-named "First Lightning"--at the Semipalatinsk Test Site in eastern Kazakhstan. Witnesses remember feeling the ground tremble and seeing the sky turn red--and how that red sky was quickly dominated by a peculiar mushroom-shaped cloud. The Soviet military and scientific personnel conducting the test knew that the rain and wind would make the local population more susceptible to radioactive fallout.

Bringing the Soviet military-industrial complex to life

David E. Hoffman — Thu, 17 Sep 2009 14:08:34 -0700

In Moscow on July 27, 1989, at the offices of the Central Committee, a group of high-level officials gathered in the office of Lev Zaikov, the Soviet Politburo member who oversaw the country's military-industrial complex. Sixteen people in addition to Zaikov came to the session, a Politburo "commission" that included Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, KGB Chief Vladimir Kryuchkov, and Chief of the General Staff Mikhail Moiseev.

Local priorities vs. national interests in arms control

Travis Sharp — Fri, 28 Aug 2009 12:53:12 -0700

While beliefs about national sovereignty and international law matter, when it comes to arms control treaties, ideological considerations rarely trump pork-barrel politics. Would a senator from a state dependent on the nuclear weapons complex oppose an arms control treaty not on the basis of ideology, but because the treaty would mean the loss of jobs or funding in their home state? Absolutely.

A brief history of climate change and conflict

James R. Lee — Fri, 14 Aug 2009 13:15:11 -0700

In recent years, many foreign affairs experts have attempted to demonstrate the linkages between climate change and the social tensions that can lead to conflict. While critics may believe this is simply a fad in international affairs, history suggests otherwise. Over the last few millennia, climate change has been a factor in conflict and social collapse around the world. The changing climate has influenced how and where people migrate, affected group power relations, and provided new resources to societies while taking away others.

Maximizing U.S. federal loan guarantees for new nuclear energy

John C. Slocum — Wed, 29 Jul 2009 10:04:09 -0700

In May, the Energy Department confirmed that it was selecting four applicants to proceed to the penultimate "due diligence" stage of the $18.5-billion federal loan-guarantee program for new nuclear power projects.

Is North Korea's reprocessing facility operating?

Hui Zhang — Thu, 23 Jul 2009 07:39:05 -0700

In response to a U.N. resolution punishing its nuclear test on May 25, North Korea defiantly threatened on June 13 to weaponize all of its newly separated plutonium. Pyongyang also declared, "More than one-third of the spent fuel rods has been reprocessed to date." However, recent off-site air samples and satellite imagery suggest that North Korea's reprocessing facility isn't operating, casting doubt on Pyongyang's statements. But is it possible that North Korea's reprocessing facility could be in use without detection?

The safety inadequacies of India's fast breeder reactor

Ashwin Kumar — Tue, 21 Jul 2009 08:57:29 -0700

India's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) is planning a large expansion of nuclear power, in which fast breeder reactors play an important role. Fast breeder reactors are attractive to the DAE because they produce (or "breed") more fissile material than they use. The breeder reactor is especially attractive in India, which hopes to develop a large domestic nuclear energy program even though it has primarily poor quality uranium ore that is expensive to mine.