Web Edition | Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Achieving détente with Iran

John Tirman — Thu, 02 Jul 2009 14:35:38 -0700

The apparently fraudulent Iranian presidential election and the domestic unrest have presented President Barack Obama with a problem. Since his own election, Obama slowly has tried to open a diplomatic path to Iran, which, while scarcely consistent or imaginative, had the potential to be productive. However, because of its violent response to the protests that followed the election and the election fraud itself, Iran's current leadership lacks both moral and political legitimacy, making bold U.S. diplomacy difficult.

Iran: Looking forward

Hugh Gusterson — Tue, 30 Jun 2009 08:01:02 -0700

Ayatollah Khamenei and the Iranian regime had two choices when their blatant rigging of the election was met with massive street protests. They could stand aside, a la the decrepit regimes of Eastern Europe in 1989; or they could send out uniformed thugs to beat, kill, and intimidate the protesters until their movement buckled, a la China's Tiananmen Square strategy.

They chose the latter, and we will all pay the price.

A post-launch examination of the Unha-2

David Wright — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 12:09:29 -0700

North Korea tested a launch vehicle called the Unha-2 from its Musudan-ri launch site in North Hamgyong province on April 5 local time (April 4, 10:30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time). Using information that has become available since the test and information from previous tests, we have conducted a technical analysis that leads to a compelling description of the Unha-2 launcher. This analysis suggests both challenges and potential opportunities.

Marketing new chemical weapons

Neil Davison — Mon, 29 Jun 2009 09:13:47 -0700

In April 2007, 26 people from the U.S. Justice Department, local law enforcement, the military, academia, and civil society came together at the behest of the National Institute of Justice (NIJ), the research arm of the Justice Department, to consider the issue of "nonlethal" weapons development.

Budgeting for national security

Gordon Adams — Thu, 25 Jun 2009 15:25:14 -0700

When taking into account the costs of military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. defense budget has more than doubled since fiscal year 2001. And yet, despite this growth, the appetite for more defense funding has continued unabated, and our security dilemmas appear to grow.

Time for a missile test ban

Bharath Gopalaswamy — Wed, 24 Jun 2009 07:40:28 -0700

For more than 60 years, missiles have been a symbol of international power. Influential nations have them, and others want them. As early as the 1950s, ballistic missiles served as a principal component of European security, with U.S.-made Thor and Jupiter intermediate-range ballistic missiles deployed in NATO countries such as Britain, Italy, and West Germany. On the other side of the Iron Curtain, Soviet-made Scud, SS-21, SS-23, and FROG rockets were deployed to nearby Warsaw Pact countries.

Will the Senate support new nuclear arms reductions?

John Isaacs — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 08:19:30 -0700

President Barack Obama has an ambitious agenda on nuclear weapons issues that will take a long time to implement. For example, the earliest the Senate is likely to vote again on the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) is 2010. Likewise, a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty is at least three years away. Ditto for the president's goal of safeguarding all vulnerable nuclear weapons and nuclear materials worldwide. And then there is his most ambitious goal of all--a nuclear-weapon-free world, which even he has suggested probably won't take place in his lifetime.

The demise of the pebble bed modular reactor

Steve Thomas — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 07:22:43 -0700

In February 2009, Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) Ltd., an eponymously named South African company announced a major change of strategy. After 10 years of development it said it was abandoning plans to build a full-size 165-megawatt-electric demonstration plant. Furthermore, PBMR Ltd. said it will try to redirect its future plans for the reactor from electricity generation toward thermal applications, such as coal gasification and water desalination. With government funding set to run out next year, the company will have to close if new funding is not found.

Assessing North Korea's uranium enrichment capabilities

Hui Zhang — Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:31:35 -0700

As retaliation against tighter U.N. sanctions, on Saturday North Korea defiantly threatened to expand its nuclear arsenal and begin a program of uranium enrichment--a threat it first made in response to U.N. condemnation of its early April rocket launch. Compared to North Korea's well-known plutonium production program, the nature of Pyongyang's highly enriched uranium (HEU) program is less clear.

Locking down the NPT

Henry Sokolski — Wed, 17 Jun 2009 12:46:43 -0700

President Barack Obama recently spoke of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty's (NPT) importance, as has every president since Lyndon B. Johnson who signed the treaty in 1968. Yet they have all, to a lesser or greater degree, weakened the treaty, through lax enforcement, by carving out exceptions for certain countries, or by just ignoring it. We have come to the point now that North Korea, which signed the treaty in 1985, is now mocking it.

Disarmament lessons from the Chemical Weapons Convention

Mikhail Gorbachev — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 14:57:13 -0700

The recent joint declaration by U.S. President Barack Obama and Russian President Dmitry Medvedev to negotiate a new treaty reducing their countries' nuclear stockpiles as a first step toward "a nuclear-weapon-free world" has spurred hopes for renewed progress in global disarmament after a decade of gridlock. An excellent example of how nations can work together effectively within a multilateral framework to eliminate weapons of mass destruction is the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC).

Outlaw nonconsensual human experiments now

Cheryl Welsh — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:45:00 -0700

About 15 years ago, a reporter at the Albuquerque Tribune discovered evidence that during the Cold War, the U.S. government carried out radiation experiments on U.S. citizens without their knowledge or consent, all under the shadow of classified research. When the story hit the newswires, the U.S. public was outraged.

Can the U.S. lead the way on dual-use education?

Malcolm Dando — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 10:35:06 -0700

Since the Second Review Conference of the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC) in 1986, States Parties have made suggestions for how to educate life scientists about and raise awareness of the dual-use implications of their benignly intended work. But little truly has been done to engage scientists on the subject.

The North Korean nuclear test: Seoul goes on the defensive

Jungmin Kang — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 07:38:12 -0700

On May 25, two years and seven months after its first nuclear test, North Korea conducted its second nuclear test at Phunggye-ri, in the northeastern part of the country, which is close to the East Sea and about 375 kilometers northeast of Pyongyang. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the second test took place about 6 kilometers west of the 2006 test.

Using the Reagan arms control legacy correctly

Todd Fine — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 07:36:00 -0700

While conservatives find comfort in channeling Ronald Reagan's memory in support of their national security policies, liberals have mostly ceded to his symbol. Indeed, when Barack Obama referenced Reagan as a model transformational president during the Democratic primary, his opponent Hillary Clinton pounced on the statement for her political gain.

The problems with the Department of Homeland Security

Laura H. Kahn — Tue, 09 Jun 2009 10:34:19 -0700

In response to 9/11, Congress created the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), a massive cabinet-level agency that consolidated 22 departments and agencies and almost 200,000 federal employees. Its goal was to improve domestic security coordination and communication.

North Korea and the Clock

Kennette Benedict — Mon, 08 Jun 2009 13:42:55 -0700

When the Bulletin last moved the hand of the Clock closer to midnight in January 2007, we noted our worries about what North Korea's nuclear arsenal might portend for future arms races in Northeast Asia and for further unraveling of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

The North Korean nuclear test: The South Korean reaction

Kiho Yi — Fri, 05 Jun 2009 08:32:26 -0700

In South Korea last week, not even North Korea's nuclear test and its subsequent missile launches could overshadow the sad news of former President Roh Moo-hyun's death. In fact, South Koreans spent most of last week grieving, not angry at Pyongyang for its latest provocation. Such a reaction is the product of a decade's worth of reconciliation and cooperation between Seoul and Pyongyang that has helped develop a perception in the South that the North is no longer the enemy.

Whither Pakistan? A five-year forecast

Pervez Hoodbhoy — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 12:11:39 -0700

First, the bottom line: Pakistan will not break up; there will not be another military coup; the Taliban will not seize the presidency; Pakistan's nuclear weapons will not go astray; and the Islamic sharia will not become the law of the land.

That's the good news. It conflicts with opinions in the mainstream U.S. press, as well as with some in the Obama administration. For example, in March, David Kilcullen, a top adviser to Gen. David Petraeus, declared that state collapse could occur within six months. This is highly improbable.

The North Korean nuclear test: The Chinese reaction

Hui Zhang — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 07:46:55 -0700

On the morning of May 25, many schools in northeast China were evacuated because of the earthquake caused by the North Korea nuclear test. The epicenter of the earthquake, registering 4.5 on the Richter scale, was just 180 kilometers away from those schools.