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The status of U.S. nuclear weapons in Turkey

For more than 40 years, Turkey has been a quiet custodian of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons. During the Cold War, Washington positioned intermediate-range nuclear missiles and bombers there to serve as a bulwark against the Soviet Union (i.e., to defend the region against Soviet attack and to influence Soviet strategic calculations). In the event of a Soviet assault on Europe, the weapons were to be fired as one of the first retaliatory shots. But as the Cold War waned, so, too, did the weapons' strategic value.
Erdogan and Trump shake hands

Getting the nukes out of Turkey: A how-to guide

Almost all of the details about previous withdrawals have remained a secret, but if the United States wanted to evacuate the nuclear weapons from Turkey, here’s how it might do it.

Cold comfort

As the plausible military rationales for nuclear weapons continue to deteriorate in the aftermath of the Cold War, political and psychological rationales for nuclear weapons -- like providing reassurance to US allies -- are increasingly viewed to be just as important as deterrence.

United States nuclear weapons, 2024

The United States has embarked on a wide-ranging nuclear modernization program. We estimate that its maintains a stockpile of approximately 3,708 warheads.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin

Conventional wisdom says Turkey won’t go nuclear. That might be wrong.

Though many experts think Turkey won’t pursue nuclear weapons under Erdogan, there are three reasons to be worried.

By sending nuclear weapons to the United Kingdom, could the United States be fueling nuclear proliferation?

Stationing US nuclear weapons in the United Kingdom can address near-term security concerns. It may also increase proliferation.

US tactical nuclear weapons in Europe, 2011

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does the US have in Europe? The new Strategic Concept, adopted by NATO at the Lisbon Summit in November 2010, reaffirmed the continued importance of nuclear weapons to the security of the alliance. The document, which is intended to establish consensus on NATO missions and methods in light of … Continued
US nuclear submarine

Nuclear Notebook: United States nuclear weapons, 2023

At the beginning of 2023, the US Department of Defense maintained an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,708 nuclear warheads for delivery by ballistic missiles and aircraft. Most of the warheads in the stockpile are not deployed but rather stored for potential upload onto missiles and aircraft as necessary. We estimate that approximately 1,770 warheads are … Continued
Minuteman III missile in silo

Nuclear Notebook: United States nuclear forces, 2020

The US nuclear arsenal remained roughly unchanged in the last year, with the Defense Department maintaining an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,800 warheads.
A test version of the new B61-12 guided nuclear bomb to be deployed in Europe as part of a modernization program. Photo from a video by Air Force Staff Sgt. Cody Griffith.

Do Germany and the Netherlands want to say goodbye to US nuclear weapons?

The United States still deploys about 100 nuclear weapons in Europe under NATO’s nuclear sharing policy. Germany and the Netherlands are now debating the prospective withdrawal of these weapons. This article presents the findings of a recent public opinion poll in the two countries on withdrawal.

Nuclear weapons sharing, 2023

This Nuclear Notebook issue examines the current state of global nuclear sharing arrangements, which include non-nuclear countries that possess nuclear-capable delivery systems for employment of a nuclear-armed state's nuclear weapons.

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does the United States have in 2022?

This Nuclear Notebook examines the status of the US nuclear arsenal, which remained roughly unchanged in the last year, with the Defense Department maintaining an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,708 warheads. Of these, only about 1,744 warheads are deployed, while approximately 1,964 are held in reserve. Additionally, approximately 1,720 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, giving a total inventory of approximately 5,428 nuclear warheads. Of the approximately 1,744 warheads that are deployed, 400 are on landbased intercontinental ballistic missiles, roughly 944 are on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, 300 are at bomber bases in the United States, and 100 tactical bombs are at European bases.

A nuke by any other name

Both NATO and Russia would like to see the other reduce its stockpile of tactical nuclear weapons, but the two sides have been unable to agree on mutual reductions. Even modest progress on the issue at NATO's Chicago summit seems unlikely. This is partially because it is unclear what a "tactical" nuclear weapon is.

Nuclear Notebook: United States nuclear weapons, 2021

The US nuclear arsenal remained roughly unchanged in the last year, with the Defense Department maintaining an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,800 warheads. Of these, only 1,800 warheads are deployed, while approximately 2,000 are held in reserve. Additionally, approximately 1,750 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, giving a total inventory of approximately 5,550 nuclear warheads.

European nuclear deterrence in the era of Putin and Trump

A “Eurodeterrent” that would rely largely on French nuclear weapons and German funding might be the best way for Europe to take charge of its own security and defense in the face of Russian threats and American waffling.
anti-war signs on Russian Embassy in London

Building a nuclear off-ramp following the war in Ukraine

In the aftermath of the war in Ukraine, European security architecture must be rebuilt. This requires improving political relations between Russia and an expanded NATO, establishing stable military-to-military relations at reduced force levels ,and reliably reducing the threat of nuclear war.