Theodore A. Postol

Articles by Theodore A. Postol

11 August 2017
AmericasAsiaEurope/Russia

North Korea’s “not quite” ICBM can’t hit the lower 48 states

Theodore A. PostolMarkus Schiller Robert Schmucker

Even if North Korea is now capable of fabricating a relatively light-weight, “miniaturized” atomic bomb that can survive the extreme reentry environments of long-range rocket delivery, it will, with certainty, not be able to deliver such an atomic bomb to the lower 48 states of the United States with the rocket tested on July 3 and July 28.

1 March 2017

How US nuclear force modernization is undermining strategic stability: The burst-height compensating super-fuze

Hans M. KristensenMatthew McKinzieTheodore A. Postol

The combination of a lack of Russian situational awareness, dangerously short warning times, high-readiness alert postures, and the increasing US strike capacity resulting from a new fuzing system for submarine-based nuclear missiles has created a deeply destabilizing and dangerous strategic nuclear situation.

1 March 2017

The super-fuze picture

Hans M. KristensenMatthew McKinzieTheodore A. Postol
25 February 2015
AmericasEurope/Russia

What would happen if an 800-kiloton nuclear warhead detonated above midtown Manhattan?

Steven StarrLynn EdenTheodore A. Postol

At least 90 square miles of firestorm would extinguish all life and destroy most everything else

19 July 2014
Middle East

The evidence that shows Iron Dome is not working

Theodore A. Postol

Close study of photographic and video imagery of Israeli Iron Dome defense inceptors engaging with Hamas rockets—both in the current conflict and in the 2012 hostilities—shows that the Israeli rocket-defense system's success rate has been very low—as low as 5 percent or, perhaps, even less.

20 September 2012

The astonishing National Academy of Sciences missile defense report

George N. LewisTheodore A. Postol

A recent National Academy report reaches flawed conclusions based on incorrect assumptions, analytical oversights, and internal inconsistency. It should undergo a comprehensive technical review before it is used in missile defense policy making.

20 September 2012

The astonishing National Academy of Sciences missile defense report

George N. LewisTheodore A. Postol

Just a few weeks ago, on September 11, the National Academy of Sciences issued a report titled "Making Sense of Ballistic Missile Defense: an Assessment of Concepts and Systems for US Boost Phase Missile Defense in Comparison to Other Alternatives." It is an astonishing document, given that it purports to be the product of a respectable scientific institution. It contains numerous flawed assumptions, analytical oversights, and internal inconsistencies.

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