DIGITAL MAGAZINE

March 2020

DIGITAL MAGAZINE

March 2020

Cover design by Thomas Gaulkin

Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at a 2017 G20 meeting in Hamburg.

Why US-Russian arms control can succeed even in a climate of confrontation

By Mikhail Troitskiy

At the turn of the decade, a crisis is rapidly unfolding in US-Russian arms control—with potentially dangerous regional and global implications. One key arms control agreement—the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty—has already fallen apart. However, the fate of US-Russian arms control is far from sealed.
Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump at a 2017 G20 meeting in Hamburg.

Why US-Russian arms control can succeed even in a climate of confrontation

By Mikhail Troitskiy

At the turn of the decade, a crisis is rapidly unfolding in US-Russian arms control—with potentially dangerous regional and global implications. One key arms control agreement—the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty—has already fallen apart. However, the fate of US-Russian arms control is far from sealed.
Participation in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Countries in red or orange are non-members.

The NPT turns 50: Will it get to 60?

By Henry Sokolski, John Lauder

In the next decade, it is all too likely that the past success of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons among the world’s nations will be reversed. Three trends make more proliferation likely.
The NATO flag.

Can NATO evolve into a Climate Alliance Treaty Organization in the Middle East?

By Amar Causevic, Ibrahim Al-Marashi

NATO’s current security doctrine needs to change. It needs to enhance its political will and institutional capacity to manage climate change threats, both within the alliance itself and within the area most vulnerable to its southern flank: the Middle East. NATO will need to evolve into a CATO, a “Climate Alliance Treaty Organization,” that deals with the security implications of potential tipping points and develops policies in response.
Republic of Korea Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets. Photo credit: ROK Air Force

How to keep South Korea from going nuclear

By Duyeon Kim

The South Korean public debate on the country’s future nuclear options has recently extended beyond the usual pro-nuclear, conservative fringe voices of the past. Still, South Korea’s opposition to nuclear weapons remains strong. But Seoul’s nuclear abstinence must not be taken for granted.

Can the nuclear nonproliferation regime be saved when arms control is collapsing?

By John Mecklin

When limits on nuclear weapons get public attention nowadays, the discussion generally focuses on the disintegration of this or that arms control agreement, and whether its diminishment or disappearance should or shouldn’t be lamented. So far, the Trump administration has lamented little, as many arms control and disarmament experts expressed alarm.
US President Donald Trump and his wife, Melania, look on as German Chancellor Angela Merkel communes with French President Emmanuel Macron during ceremonies commemorating the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I.

Why Germany won’t build its own nuclear weapons and remains skeptical of a Eurodeterrent

By Oliver Meier

Aggressive Russian policies and the Trump administration’s transactional approach to alliances have put nuclear issues back on the agenda for European governments. Arguments for German acquisition of nuclear weapons have gained no traction among German decision makers, as this would require multiple costly and radical shifts of Berlin’s foreign and security policies.
Examples of composite images designed to be used in disinformation campaigns. Left and Center: This anti-Widodo hashtag was added to the building through the use of a digital image-editing tool. The modification was detected by an algorithm that searches images for inconsistencies in the statistics of their pixels. Right: The CNN International logo has been added to a false news story about Widodo.

An AI early warning system to monitor online disinformation, stop violence, and protect elections

By Walter Scheirer, Tim Weninger, Michael Yankoski

We’re developing an AI early warning system to monitor how manipulated content online such as altered photos in memes leads, in some cases, to violent conflict and societal instability. Our system may prove useful to journalists, peacekeepers, election monitors, and others who need to understand how manipulated content is spreading online during elections and in other contexts.
A Russian Topol-M mobile missile at a 2012 parade.

Nuclear Notebook: Russian nuclear forces, 2020

By Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda

This issue’s column examines Russia’s nuclear arsenal, which includes a stockpile of approximately 4,310 warheads. Of these, 1,570 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles and at heavy bomber bases, while an additional 870 strategic warheads, along with 1,870 nonstrategic warheads, are held in reserve. The Russian arsenal is continuing broad modernization intended to replace most Soviet-era weapons by the mid to late 2020s.
Participation in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Countries in red or orange are non-members.

The NPT turns 50: Will it get to 60?

By Henry Sokolski, John Lauder

In the next decade, it is all too likely that the past success of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons among the world’s nations will be reversed. Three trends make more proliferation likely.
The NATO flag.

Can NATO evolve into a Climate Alliance Treaty Organization in the Middle East?

By Amar Causevic, Ibrahim Al-Marashi

NATO’s current security doctrine needs to change. It needs to enhance its political will and institutional capacity to manage climate change threats, both within the alliance itself and within the area most vulnerable to its southern flank: the Middle East. NATO will need to evolve into a CATO, a “Climate Alliance Treaty Organization,” that deals with the security implications of potential tipping points and develops policies in response.
Republic of Korea Air Force F-16 Fighting Falcon fighter jets. Photo credit: ROK Air Force

How to keep South Korea from going nuclear

By Duyeon Kim

The South Korean public debate on the country’s future nuclear options has recently extended beyond the usual pro-nuclear, conservative fringe voices of the past. Still, South Korea’s opposition to nuclear weapons remains strong. But Seoul’s nuclear abstinence must not be taken for granted.

Can the nuclear nonproliferation regime be saved when arms control is collapsing?

By John Mecklin

When limits on nuclear weapons get public attention nowadays, the discussion generally focuses on the disintegration of this or that arms control agreement, and whether its diminishment or disappearance should or shouldn’t be lamented. So far, the Trump administration has lamented little, as many arms control and disarmament experts expressed alarm.
US President Donald Trump and his wife, Melania, look on as German Chancellor Angela Merkel communes with French President Emmanuel Macron during ceremonies commemorating the 100th anniversary of the end of World War I.

Why Germany won’t build its own nuclear weapons and remains skeptical of a Eurodeterrent

By Oliver Meier

Aggressive Russian policies and the Trump administration’s transactional approach to alliances have put nuclear issues back on the agenda for European governments. Arguments for German acquisition of nuclear weapons have gained no traction among German decision makers, as this would require multiple costly and radical shifts of Berlin’s foreign and security policies.
Examples of composite images designed to be used in disinformation campaigns. Left and Center: This anti-Widodo hashtag was added to the building through the use of a digital image-editing tool. The modification was detected by an algorithm that searches images for inconsistencies in the statistics of their pixels. Right: The CNN International logo has been added to a false news story about Widodo.

An AI early warning system to monitor online disinformation, stop violence, and protect elections

By Walter Scheirer, Tim Weninger, Michael Yankoski

We’re developing an AI early warning system to monitor how manipulated content online such as altered photos in memes leads, in some cases, to violent conflict and societal instability. Our system may prove useful to journalists, peacekeepers, election monitors, and others who need to understand how manipulated content is spreading online during elections and in other contexts.
A Russian Topol-M mobile missile at a 2012 parade.

Nuclear Notebook: Russian nuclear forces, 2020

By Hans M. Kristensen, Matt Korda

This issue’s column examines Russia’s nuclear arsenal, which includes a stockpile of approximately 4,310 warheads. Of these, 1,570 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles and at heavy bomber bases, while an additional 870 strategic warheads, along with 1,870 nonstrategic warheads, are held in reserve. The Russian arsenal is continuing broad modernization intended to replace most Soviet-era weapons by the mid to late 2020s.

Cover design by Thomas Gaulkin

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Albert Einstein in Washington, D.C., between 1921 and 1923. Harris & Ewing, photographers. Courtesy of the Library of Congress. https://www.loc.gov/pictures/item/2016885961/

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