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How an India-Pakistan nuclear war could start—and have global consequences

A map showing nuclear strikes during an India-Pakistan war scenarioA map showing nuclear strikes, by the day, during an India-Pakistan war scenario

This article describes how an India-Pakistan nuclear war might come to pass, and what the local and global effects of such a war might be. The direct effects of this nuclear exchange would be horrible; the authors estimate that 50 to 125 million people would die, depending on whether the weapons used had yields of 15, 50, or 100 kilotons. The ramifications for Indian and Pakistani society would be major and long lasting, with many major cities largely destroyed and uninhabitable, millions of injured people needing care, and power, transportation, and financial infrastructure in ruins. But the climatic effects of the smoke produced by an India-Pakistan nuclear war would not be confined to the subcontinent, or even to Asia. Those effects would be enormous and global in scope. Free-access until January 1, 2020.

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A painted Doomsday Clock surrounded by text snippets and illustrations from the Bulletin’s magazine archives appears beside text that reads, “Discuss the US elections, geopolitics, space, and more at the Bulletin’s annual gathering. On November 12, join 250 attendees and members of Bulletin leadership—including those who set the Doomsday Clock—at our annual gathering in Chicago.” Below it, a button that reads, “Get my ticket.”

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