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Melissa G. Dalton is a senior fellow and deputy director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. She previously served for 10 years in the US Defense Department as a policy adviser and intelligence analyst. This article is adapted from the author’s work in Deterring Iran After the Nuclear Deal(https://www.csis.org/analysis/deterring-iran-after-nuclear-deal), a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.