New START: A timeline of inaction and disingenuous proposals

Following a year of talks led by US State Department assistant secretary Rose Gottemoeller and her Russian counterpart Anatoly Antonov, the New START agreement is signed by Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev on April 10, 2010. After ratification, the treaty goes into force on February 5, 2011, capping both countries' strategic nuclear arsenals with provisions for verification by both sides.

President Trump talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time as president. Reuters later reports that during this call, when Putin asked about the possibility of extending New START, Trump had to pause the call in order to ask an aide what the treaty was. Trump then called the treaty a bad deal negotiated by the Obama administration.

Christopher Ford, special assistant to the president and National Security Council senior director for weapons of mass destruction and counterproliferation, says that the administration would wait to consider extension of treaty until after the completion of the Nuclear Posture Review and after the two countries meet the implementation deadline.

After the implementation deadline, he says, “we can begin to assess whether or not extending New START for an additional five years…is in our national security interest.”

One year into the Trump presidency and seven years after New START took effect, the United States and Russia meet the treaty's implementation deadline, limiting their strategic nuclear arsenals to no more than 1,550 deployed warheads and 700 deployed missiles and heavy bombers each. The US State Department has continually assessed that Russia complied with the treaty.

In an address to the Federal Assembly, Putin announces the development of five new nuclear weapons delivery systems, which had begun many years earlier, following the US withdrawal from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty in 2002.

Trump and Putin meet in Helsinki, and their meeting includes a discussion on arms control. Afterwards, Putin says, “I reassured President Trump that Russia stands ready to extend [New START], to prolong it, but we have to agree on the specifics at first, because we have some questions to our American partners.”

Secretary of State Mike Pompeo says that “Both the Russians and the United States have been compliant” with New START.

Regarding a five-year extension, he said, “We’re at the very beginning of conversations about renewing that. If we can get the deal right, if we can make sure it fits 2021 and beyond, President Trump has made very clear that if we can get a good solid arms control agreement, we ought to get one.” He also said that “we need to make sure we’ve got all of the parties that are relevant as a component of this as well,” which would include China, since “it’s certainly China that has large numbers.”

A senior Trump administration official says that President Trump instructed his staff in April to seek a new arms control agreement on nuclear weapons that would “include Russia and China and should include all the weapons, all the warheads, all the missiles.”

China rejects the idea that Beijing will join the United States and Russia in arms control talks.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang says, “We oppose any country’s attempt to make an issue out of China on arms control and will not participate in any negotiation for a trilateral nuclear disarmament agreement.”

This was to be the first of many refusals by China to join trilateral arms control talks.

National Security Advisor John Bolton says that, on the issue of an extension of New START, “There’s no decision but I think it’s unlikely.”

Russia says that two of its new nuclear weapons delivery systems, the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile and the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, would be covered by New START. The Trump administration had been criticizing the treaty for not covering these weapons. Meanwhile, other weapons concerning to Washington would not be deployed until after 2026, a report released in November finds.

Trump says that, “Russia wants to make a deal on arms control.” He adds, “We’ll also certainly bring in, as you know, China. And we may bring them in later, or we may bring them in now.” Later that day, Trump falsely claims that China is “extremely excited” about getting involved in an arms control agreement.

Putin says, “Russia is willing to immediately, as soon as possible, before the year is out, renew this treaty without any preconditions.” This marks a shift in the Russian position, which previously had wanted certain concerns addressed before it would agree to an extension.

Marshall Billingslea gives his first public remarks as US presidential envoy for arms control, during which he says that Trump gave him “crystal clear” instructions to achieve “the most complete, effective, and verifiable arms control agreement that can be negotiated.” This agreement, he says, must include China, cover new Russian strategic delivery systems and non-strategic nuclear weapons, and have “as strong a verification and compliance regime as you could imagine.”

Billingslea meets his Russian counterpart, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, in Vienna for another round of the strategic security dialogue.

During a press briefing two days later, Billingslea says, “We are willing to contemplate an extension of [New START] but only under select circumstances.” Those circumstances, he continues, include making “progress” toward a new trilateral arms control agreement that has strong verification measures, covers all nuclear warheads, and involves China. He does not define what he views as “progress.”

Trump says again that, with respect to trying to include China in arms control talks, “We’ll talk about that later…China right now is a much lesser nuclear power—you understand that—than Russia.” He suggests that first, the administration would focus on arms control with Russia and then “go to China together.”

Billingslea and Ryabkov meet again in Vienna, and Billingslea afterwards communicates a shift in the US arms control strategy.

Billingslea tells the press that the Trump administration is now seeking a politically binding framework with Moscow as an interim step to a new trilateral arms control agreement. This framework, Billingslea says, must cover all nuclear warheads, fix “the most glaring deficiencies” in the New START verification regime, and include China not immediately, as previously demanded, but in the future. The special envoy says that he will recommend Trump extend New START if Moscow agrees to the framework.

Russia calls the US proposal “unrealistic.”

Billingslea reveals that during his latest meeting with Sergey Ryabkov in Helsinki on October 5, he put a new proposal on the table: an extension of New START “for some period of time” paired with a freeze on all US and Russian nuclear warheads and some type of verification regime for the freeze. Robert O’Brien, the US National Security Advisor, later clarifies that the duration of both the extension and the freeze would be for one year. “There is an agreement in principle at the highest levels of our two governments” on this proposal, he claims. Ryabkov dismisses Billingslea’s claim as “delusional.”

Putin proposes “to extend [New START] now in effect unconditionally for at least a year.” O’Brien rejects the offer.

The Russian Foreign Ministry releases a statement in order to “clarify” Putin’s October 16 proposal as Moscow has “received no official response from the United States.”

“Russia has proposed extending New START for one year and is ready to assume a political obligation together with the United States to freeze the sides’ existing arsenals of nuclear warheads during this period,” the ministry says. “Our proposal can only and exclusively be implemented on the understanding that the United States will not advance any additional conditions with regard to freezing the arsenals,” referring to verification measures.

State Department Spokeswoman Morgan Ortagus responds, “We appreciate the Russian Federation’s willingness to make progress on the issue of nuclear arms control. The United States is prepared to meet immediately to finalize a verifiable agreement. We expect Russia to empower its diplomats to do the same.”

Billingslea later insists that the United States and Russia “are very, very close to a deal” and that “there’s going to have to be effective verification associated with this warhead freeze.”

Ryabkov rejects the prospect of including any verification procedures. “It is not possible to say that [the United States and Russia] are on the verge of an agreement,” he says. “We have to state that the degree of our differences is rather significant.”

O’Brien admits that an agreement is “not a done deal.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov tells the press, “Considering the current commotion in the United States caused by the ongoing vote recount, lawsuits, and other perturbation, we cannot expect any coherent proposals from either Trump’s people or Joe Biden’s team.”

“So, we will wait until the dust settles,” says Lavrov.

Joseph R. Biden, Jr. takes office as the 46th president of the United States, just 16 days before the New START treaty is set to expire.

Unless an extension is agreed, the New START treaty expires at midnight, marking the first time since 1972 that the United States and Russia would have no negotiated constraints on their strategic nuclear arsenals.