Pandemics, public health, and popular support: What history can tell us

By J. Alexander Navarro | May 13, 2025

Illustration from a contemporary magazine during the 1866 London cholera epidemic, showing that death came from unclean water. Public domain image / Wikimedia Commons

Pandemics, public health, and popular support: What history can tell us

By J. Alexander Navarro | May 13, 2025

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References

Allcott, Hunt, Levi Boxell, Jacob Conway, Matthew Gentzkow, Michael Thaler, and David Yang. 2020. “Polarization and Public Health: Partisan Differences in Social Distancing during the Coronavirus Pandemic.” Journal of Public Economics191. November: 104254. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272720301183

Atlanta Constitution. 1918a. “Protest Is Made by Theater Men.” Oct. 15.

Atlanta Constitution. 1918b. “Flu Ban Will Stay, Resolution to Lift is Voted Down.” Oct. 25.

Atlanta Constitution. 1918c. “Lovers of Theaters Happy when Houses Open Again Monday.” Oct. 29.

Bayham, Jude and Eli P. Fenichel. 2020. “Impact of School Closures for COVID-19 on the US Health-care Workforce and Net Mortality: A Modelling Study.” The Lancet Public Health. 5 (5):e271-278. Available at: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30082-7/fulltext

Bogel-Burroughs, Nicholas and Campbell Robertson. 2020. “While Virus Surges, Georgia Governor Sues Atlanta Mayor.” The New York Times. July 21. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/17/us/brian-kemp-georgia-keisha-lance-bottoms-atlanta.html

Casteneda-Angarita, Nestor, Karen M Hilyard, Kevin H. Kim, Vicki Freimuth, and Sandra Crouse Quinn. 2012. “Ideology, Partisanship, and Support for Government Actions in 2009 H1N1 Influenza Pandemic.” In 140th APHA Annual Meeting and Exposition.

Cortéz-Albornoz, María C., Sofía Ramírez-Guerrero, Danna P. García-Guáqueta, Alberto Vélez-Van-Meerbeke, and Claudia Talero-Gutiérrez. 2023. “Effects of Remote Learning during COVID-19 Lockdown on Children’s Learning Abilities and School Performance: A Systematic Review,” International Journal of Educational Development. 101 (September): 102835. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0738059323001116?via%3Dihub

Denver Post. 1918a. “Flu Ban Is Off, Masks Are Ordered.” Nov. 23.

Denver Post. 1918b. “Health Proclamation.” Nov. 24.

Detroit Free Press. 1918a. “823 New Cases of Influenza.” Oct. 18.

Detroit Free Press. 1918b. “State Grip Decree: Close Up Detroit.”. Oct. 19.

Detroit News. 1918. “Be Calm, Cool; Check Disease.” Oct. 18.

Druckman, James N., Samara Klar, Yanna Krupnikov, Matthew Levendusky, and John Barry Ryan. 2021. “Affective Polarization, Local Contexts and Public Opinion in America.” Natural Human Behavior 5 (1):28-38. Available at: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01012-5

Dunphy, Christopher, Gabrielle F. Miller, Ketra Rice, Linda Vo, Gregory Sunshine, Russell McCord, Mara Howard-Williams, and Fátima Coronado. 2022. “The Impact of Covid-19 State Closure orders on Consumer Spending, Employment, and Business Revenue.” Journal of Public Health Management and Practice 28 (1):43-49. Available at: https://journals.lww.com/jphmp/abstract/2022/01000/the_impact_of_covid_19_state_closure_orders_on.9.aspx

Green, John. Jared Edgerton, Daniel Naftel, Kelsey Shoub, and Skyler J. Cranmer. 2020. “Elusive Consensus: Polarization in Elite Communication on the COVID-19 Pandemic,” Science Advances 6 (28). https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abc2717

Grossmann, M., Sarah Reckhow,  Strunk, Katharine O., and Meg Turner. 2021. “All States Close but Red Districts Reopen: The Politics of In-Person Schooling During the COVID-19 Pandemic.” Educational Researcher. 50 (9): 637-648. https://doi.org/10.3102/0013189X211048840

Hatchett, Richard J., Carter E. Mecher, and Marc Lipsitch. 2007. “Public Health Interventions and Epidemic Intensity During the 1918 Influenza Pandemic.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Science 104 (18): 7582-7 https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0610941104

Hilyard, Karen M., Vicki S. Freimuth, Donald Musa, Supriya Kumar, and Sandra Crouse Quinn. 2012. “The Vagaries of Public Support for Government Actions in Case of a Pandemic.” Health Affairs 29 (12):2294-3201. https://www.healthaffairs.org/doi/10.1377/hlthaff.2010.0474

Iwata, Kentaro, Asako Doi, and Chisato Miyakoshi. 2020. “Was School Closure Effective at Mitigating Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)? Time Series Analysis Using Bayesian Inference.” International Journal of Infectious Disease99 (October): 57-61. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1201971220305981#:~:text=Time%20series%20analyses%20were%20conducted,the%20incidence%20of%20coronavirus%20infection.

Jackson, Charlotte, Punam Mangtani, Jeremy Hawker, Babatunde Olowokure, Emilia Vynnycky. 2014. “The Effect of School Closures on Influenza Outbreaks and Pandemics: Systematic Review of Simulation Studies,” PLoS One 9 (5):e97297. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0097297

Markel, Howard, Harvey B. Lipman, J. Alexander Navarro, Alexandra Sloan, Joseph R. Michalsen, Alexandra Minna Stern, and Martin S. Cetron. 2007, “Nonpharmaceutical Interventions Implemented by US Cities During the 1918-1919 Influenza Pandemic.” Journal of the American Medical Association 298 (6);644-54. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/208354

Mehlhaff, Isaac D., Matías C. Tarillo, Ayelén Vanegas, and Marc J. Hetherington. 2024. “Partisanship and the Pandemic: How and Why Americans Followed Party Cues on COVID-19.” Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law. 49 (3):351-374. https://read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article-abstract/49/3/351/383873/Partisanship-and-the-Pandemic-How-and-Why?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Navarro, J. Alexander, Katrin S. Kohl, Martin S. Cetron, and Howard Markel. 2016. “A Tale of Many Cities: A Contemporary Historical Study of the Implementation of School Closures during the 2009 pA(H1N1) Influenza Pandemic.” Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law 41 (3): 393-421. https://read.dukeupress.edu/jhppl/article-abstract/41/3/393/13825/A-Tale-of-Many-Cities-A-Contemporary-Historical?redirectedFrom=fulltext

Peters, James A., and Mohsen Farhadloo. 2023. “The Effects of Nonpharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Mortality: A Systematic Literature Review and Meta-analysis,” AJPM Focus 2 (4):10025. https://www.ajpmfocus.org/article/S2773-0654(23)00062-7/fulltext

Pew Research Center. 2014. Ebola Worries Rise, But Most Are ‘Fairly’ Confident in Government, Hospitals to Deal with Disease. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2014/10/21/ebola-worries-rise-but-most-are-fairly-confident-in-government-hospitals-to-deal-with-disease/

Rocky Mountain News. 1918a. “Theater Men Protest Ban.”. Nov. 23.

Rocky Mountain News. 1918b. “Epidemic Closing Order Revoked; Masks Urged to Stop Disease Spread.” Nov. 24.

Rossi, Rodolfo, Valentina Socci, Dalila Talevi, Sonia Mensi, Cinzia Niolu, Francesca Pacitti, Antinisca Di Marco, Alessandro Rossi, Alberto Siracusano, and Giorgio Di Lorenzo. 2020. “COVID-19 Pandemic and Lockdown Measures Impact on Mental Health Among the General Population in Italy.” Front Psychiatry. 11 :790. https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychiatry/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2020.00790/full

Samuels, Ben. 2023.“RFK Jr. Gains Traction Amid Revelations He Compared COVID-19 Mask Mandates to Nazi Experiments.” Haaretz. June 19. https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/2023-06-19/ty-article/.premium/rfk-jr-gains-traction-amid-revelations-he-compared-covid-mask-rules-to-nazi-experiments/00000188-d4fc-d6e0-a79c-dffc9ebb0000

San Francisco Chronicle. 1918a. “Ringside Picture Reveals Maskless Fans to Police.” Nov. 20.

San Francisco Chronicle. 1918b. “San Francisco’s Mayor Is Caught Without Mask.” Nov. 21.

San Francisco Examiner. 1919a. “Flu on Wane, 75 Per Cent Drop Is Noted.” Jan. 25.

San Francisco Examiner. 1919b. “New Cases of Influenza at Low Record.” Jan. 26.

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