The Hampton Roads region of Virginia is home to 29 military facilities with over 100,000 military and 40,000 civilian personnel. It’s a strategic hub for military command centers such as the US Joint Forces Command and many others. And the southeast Virginia coastal region isn’t just an important area for bases and headquarters; it’s also a vital military manufacturing center that houses the only shipyard where US aircraft carriers are built and one of just two facilities that build US nuclear-powered submarines (Phillips 2019).

There are so many service members and so much military infrastructure in Hampton Roads that the former US Defense Secretary Lean Panetta once called it “the greatest concentration of military might in the world” (Panetta 2012). While the region’s bases, shipyards, and headquarters make it a potent symbol of military power, Hampton Roads faces an uphill battle against an ever-strengthening foe: climate change.

With a presence in 156 countries, the US military depends on a worldwide network of critical services and infrastructure (both built and natural) to support its operational, training, and testing capability. The climate-change related threats to this network are only projected to worsen.

Sea level rise and the threat to coastal bases.
Hampton Roads is extremely vulnerable to storm surge and flooding. According to a 2017 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration assessment, the effective rate of sea level rise in Hampton Roads is faster than the global average, mainly due to land subsidence (a gradual settling or sudden sinking of the Earth’s surface in response to geologic or man-induced causes such as groundwater withdrawal) and changing ocean circulation patterns. One of the cities in the region, Norfolk, has experienced 18 inches of relative sea level rise since 1900 and 8.79 inches since 1970 (Connolly 2015). In 2016, the global mean sea level was 3.2 inches higher than it was in 1993, the first year that National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration satellites began measuring sea level data (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 2019). Sea level is rising at an average rate of a little over one-eighth of an inch per year. Since the late 1990s, the duration and severity of flooding has substantially increased (Ezer and Atkinson 2015). Commanders at key installations in the Hampton Roads area report that increased flooding creates frequent interruptions to day-to-day base operations, translating into time and budgetary impacts (The Center for Climate and Security 2018). At Naval Station Norfolk, for example, the main access road into the base is subject to frequent flooding, causing delays for the 60,000 military and civilians who work there. The First Street Foundation, in a 2017 study at Naval Station Norfolk, found that by 2029, the rate of tidal flooding is projected to more than double from six to 14 days a year (Lindorff 2019).

Hurricanes have also caused devastating impacts to the infrastructure at Naval Station Norfolk as well as at other installations in Hampton Roads. In August of 2012, Naval Station Norfolk was hit by a nor’easter, which caused extensive flooding, damaging piers and bulkheads and other major structures. The Navy has since begun to replace some of the 13 piers at the base making them more resilient to storms and flooding at a cost of $35-40 million each (Connolly 2015).

In 2003, Hurricane Isabel caused waters to rise more than 7.9 feet, swamping Langley Air Force Base and causing an estimated $147 million in damage.  (Dietrich 2018 ). In 2009, the base was hit again by a devastating nor’easter. The cost of the damage was calculated as being some $44 million. Since that time, the base has put into place a resiliency plan to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise.

Just south of Naval Station Norfolk lies the Norfolk Naval Shipyard, the only East Coast naval shipyard capable of dry-docking nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and submarines. The shipyard experiences extreme high tides three to five times a year (Government Accountability Office 2019), and in the past 10 years, it has suffered nine major flooding events that have damaged equipment and infrastructure (Reinhardt and Toffel 2017). Because most of  the base sits less than 3 feet above sea level, recurrent flooding and hurricanes have submerged piers and flooded dry docks, exposing personnel to safety risks and increasing the risk of catastrophic damage to nuclear powered submarines and ships (Government Accountability Office 2017).  Four out of the five dry docks at the shipyard face flooding threats from extreme high tides and storm swells (Government Accountability Office 2017).  As the Government Accountability Office pointed out in a 2017 report, these dry docks are “not designed to accommodate the threats of rising seas.”  The Navy did receive $49 million from Congress (US House of Representatives 2020) in the 2020 fiscal year to increase the height of the floodwalls around the dry docks where workers repair nuclear submarines, part of the $200 million upgrade to dry dock 4, for which ground was broken in January of this year (Lessing 2020). These are much needed investments given the risk of catastrophic damage to an exposed submarine reactor during a flood event.

Sea levels will continue to rise and accelerate in the Hampton Roads area, and according to the Virginia Institute of Marine Science Sea Level Report Card, the region can expect an additional 18 inches of relative sea level rise by mid-century (Phillips 2019). While this poses a significant threat to the military’s strategic capabilities in Hampton Roads, the Defense Department has begun efforts to plan and mitigate these risks. The Navy, in particular, has been investing in planning adaptation and resilience efforts. As far back as 2011, the Navy funded the National Research Council, the working arm of the US National Academies, to study the risks of climate change on its mission capability. Between June 2014 and June 2016, the Defense Department convened the Hampton Roads Intergovernmental Pilot Project to bring together surrounding communities and military installations to address adaptation efforts to climate change impacts. Since that time, military facilities in Hampton Roads have embarked on several cooperative studies in partnership with the surrounding communities to assess the impacts of flooding, storm surge, and other coastal hazards on infrastructure that the military relies upon.

The devastating impacts at home and abroad.
Military facilities in the Hampton Roads area are not the only bases and installations being impacted by sea level rise. Mission critical installations on the East Coast, along the Gulf of Mexico, in Alaska, and in the Pacific and Indian oceans are all being affected. Impacts to these coastal installations have affected deployments, operations, and training. They’ve shifted military assets away from exercise deployments and training to humanitarian aid and rescue missions.

We have only to glance back over the last several years to the billions of dollars in damages to military facilities and training grounds to understand the devastating impacts of sea level rise and severe storms on the military. In 2018, Hurricane Michael flattened the home of the 325th Fighter Wing, Tyndall Air Force Base in the panhandle of Florida . Almost every structure was damaged. The total cost to rebuild: $4.7 billion (Shapiro 2019). The damage forced the temporary relocation of personnel and the base’s F-22 fighters to Hawaii, Alaska, and Eglin Air Force Base. Joint Base Langley–Eustis, which deals with recurrent flooding in Hampton Roads, has taken on much of the aviation training for the F-22s in the aftermath of the hurricane (Phillips 2019). Officials predict the recovery effort at Tyndall won’t be complete for at least five years.

Another 2018 storm, Hurricane Florence, caused $55 million in damage to the training areas and infrastructure at the Army’s Fort Bragg in North Carolina (Futch 2018).  Another North Carolina base, Marine Corps Base Camp Lejeune, houses a third of the Corps’ combat operating power. Florence caused $3.6 billion in damage to the base’s infrastructure, training areas, and critical deployment transportation capabilities (US Marine Corps Installation Command 2018).  All told, Florence’s destructive force impacted 913 military structures; 3,748 homes; and the network of railways, roads, and training areas at Camp Lejeune. Training was impacted and deployments were held up, partly due to Marine aviation assets being used for rescue and humanitarian aid.

In December 2018, General Robert Neller, then the commandant of the Marine Corps, testified before Congress about the need for the money to repair the base and the risk the damage posed to the Corps readiness. When the Marines can’t train as much as necessary, the general said, “that’s a risk“ (US Marine Corps Installations Command 2018).  In April 2019, Congress appropriated $400 million toward the $3.6 billion repair bill at Camp Lejeune (Sisk 2019). To this day, Camp Lejeune is still recovering.

Beyond sea level rise.
Sea level rise is not the only climate change factor affecting the military. Excessive snowmelt, thawing permafrost, inland flooding, drought, and wildfires all affect bases. These events have cancelled exercises, disrupted training schedules, and severely damaged infrastructure and equipment. The damage to military installations and training grounds in just the last five years from climate change factors other than sea level rise is unprecedented and only underscores the vulnerability of installations and services on the operational and training capability of the military.

In 2019, Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska was inundated with nine feet of water when record snowfall and subsequent melting caused the Missouri River to flood, damaging the flight line and supporting facilities. The cost to repair the damage has now topped $650 million (Cohen 2019).

In December 2015 and February 2016, Fort Benning, Georgia, the Army’s Maneuver Center of Excellence, suffered two back-to-back intense rainfall events, causing over $14 million in damage to the training complex and severely damaging the multimillion-dollar Digital Multipurpose Range Complex and maneuver training areas (Center for Climate and Security 2019). Intensive rainfall also hit Fort Jackson, South Carolina, in October 2015 and Fort Polk, Louisiana, in 2016, home to one of the Army’s three combat training centers (Center for Climate and Security 2019.) At Fort Jackson, more than 15 inches of rain fell in a 24-hour period, washing out ranges, roads and bridges, resulting in training delays as crews made repairs. The total cost of the damage was approximately $4.8 million to the training complex. Likewise, at Fort Polk, intensive rains caused severe flooding resulting in extensive erosion, washed out culverts and roads. Damages were estimated at approximately $4.7 million.

In recent years, rising temperatures in Alaska have caused the permafrost to melt. The Army relies on permafrost to access training grounds over ice bridges and to conduct heavy maneuver training on ground that would otherwise be swampy. As seasonal warmer weather periods grow longer, Army units have less time to conduct heavy maneuver training as access and ability to maneuver is lost due to the melting permafrost (Center for Climate and Security 2019).

In the western United States, wildfires on military installations have resulted in both loss of training days and restrictions to live fire training and aviation. Additionally, when wildfires strike an area the vegetation becomes denuded, making the soil particularly susceptible to erosion and flooding. This can mean the land supports less weight and maneuver training has to be reduced.

Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton, which serves as the Marine Corps premier amphibious training base on the West Coast, has seen an increase in lost training days due to wildfire danger. Between 2013 and 2015, 53,0000 acres were lost to wildfire at Camp Pendleton, and in 2018 (US Marine Corps 2018), wildfire also forced the evacuation of Naval Air Station Point Mugu, the US Navy reported to Congress in April 2019.

What the Pentagon is doing.
The Defense Department has recognized climate change as a security issue since 2003 and has taken incremental steps in the years since to address it through policy, research, and the development of tools to evaluate its risks. The Pentagon’s 2016 directive on Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience provides guidance on managing the risks associated with climate change (Defense Department 2016). In addition, the Defense Department has funded the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, a joint Defense Department, Energy Department, and Environmental Protection Agency initiative. The program has sponsored research and published reports related to assessing climate change impacts and developing decision-making tools. One such example is the 2016 report on regional sea level scenarios which assesses the risk to 1,774 coastal installations worldwide (Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program 2016).

The individual services have also made strides in research, planning, and development of analytical tools to address climate change. In 2017, The Navy published the handbook “Climate Change: Installation Adaptation and Resilience,” which provides Navy planners guidance on how to consider climate change in their installation infrastructure projects (Navy Facilities Engineering Command 2017). The following year, the Army funded the Army Corps of Engineers to develop an interactive tool to evaluate the near-term vulnerability of Army installations to climate change factors, a tool which is due to be published in 2020.

As the Government Accountability Office pointed out in a June 2019 report to Congress on the resiliency of Defense Department facilities (Government Accountability Office 2019), there is still much work to be done. In conducting their investigation, the agency found that “[Defense Department] installations have not consistently assessed the risks from extreme weather and climate change effects or consistently used projections to anticipate future conditions.” The report made eight recommendations, including that “the military departments work together to update master planning criteria to require an assessment of extreme weather and climate change risks and to incorporate [Defense Department] guidance on the use of climate projections into facilities design standards” (Government Accountability Office 2019). The Pentagon concurred with all recommendation and is currently working to develop guidance to incorporate sea level change into the Unified Facilities Criteria (Government Accountability Office 2019).

Given the widespread implications of climate change on military readiness, it is paramount that policy makers build capacity not only to assess climate change impacts on the readiness, but to fully integrate climate change into decision making across the board. Not to act will threaten US national security. As John Conger, director for the Center for Climate and Security and a former Pentagon official, said recently, “If we don’t come together to mitigate this threat, soon, American interests and security are on the line.”

It’s easy to see how discrete impacts on this or that base could impact the military’s response to a given crises. Next time there’s a humanitarian disaster or a pressing need for military intervention, will the military be trained enough or equipped well enough to respond?

That’s an open question.

Disclosure
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.

Funding
No funding of interest was reported by the author.

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