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Negev Nuclear Research Center

Nuclear Notebook: Israeli nuclear weapons, 2022

This issue of the Nuclear Notebook examines Israel’s nuclear arsenal, which we estimate includes a stockpile of roughly 90 warheads. Israel neither officially confirms nor denies that it possesses nuclear weapons, and our estimate is therefore largely based on calculations of Israel’s stockpile of weapon-grade plutonium and its inventory of operational nuclear-capable delivery systems.
DF-41 ICBM launchers at parade in Beijing in September 2020. The DF-41 is now operational in at least two brigades. Source: Chinese Ministry of Defense

Nuclear Notebook: Chinese nuclear forces, 2021

This Nuclear Notebook examines China’s nuclear arsenal, which has now surpassed France’s as the world’s third largest. The authors estimate that China's stockpile now includes roughly 350 operational warheads with more in production. The stockpile is projected to increase further in the next decade but remains significantly smaller than that of Russia or the United States.
A large suspected enrichment facility has been constructed at the Kahuta complex since 2014.

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does Pakistan have in 2021?

This Nuclear Notebook column examines Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which may include approximately 165 warheads. The authors estimate that the country’s stockpile could realistically grow to around 200 by 2025, if the current trend continues.
North Korea’s military parade on October 10, 2020

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does North Korea have in 2021?

This Nuclear Notebook column examines North Korea’s nuclear arsenal. The authors cautiously estimate that North Korea may have produced enough fissile material to build between 40 and 50 nuclear weapons; however, it may not have actually assembled that many.
Nuclear submarine HMS Vanguard arrives back at HM Naval Base Clyde, Faslane, Scotland following a patrol. Photo: CPOA(Phot) Tam McDonald/MOD accessed via Wikimedia Commons. Open Government License version 1.0.

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does the United Kingdom have in 2021?

Of all the nuclear weapon states, the United Kingdom has moved the furthest toward establishing a minimum nuclear deterrent. The United Kingdom has a stockpile of approximately 225 nuclear warheads, of which up to 120 are operationally available for deployment on four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). This estimate is based on publicly available … Continued

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does Russia have in 2021?

Russia’s nuclear arsenal includes a stockpile of approximately 4,489 warheads. Of these, some 1,630 strategic warheads are deployed on ballistic missiles and at heavy bomber bases, while an additional 947 strategic warheads, along with 1,912 nonstrategic warheads, are held in reserve.

Nuclear Notebook: United States nuclear weapons, 2021

The US nuclear arsenal remained roughly unchanged in the last year, with the Defense Department maintaining an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,800 warheads. Of these, only 1,800 warheads are deployed, while approximately 2,000 are held in reserve. Additionally, approximately 1,750 retired warheads are awaiting dismantlement, giving a total inventory of approximately 5,550 nuclear warheads.

Nuclear notebook: Chinese nuclear forces, 2020

We estimate that China has a produced a stockpile of approximately 350 nuclear warheads, of which roughly 272 are for delivery by more than 240 operational land-based ballistic missiles, 48 sea-based ballistic missiles, and 20 nuclear gravity bombs assigned to bombers. The remaining 78 warheads are intended to arm additional land- and sea-based missiles that are in the process of being fielded.

Nuclear Notebook: Indian nuclear forces, 2020

We estimate that India currently operates eight nuclear-capable systems: two aircraft, four land-based ballistic missiles, and two sea-based ballistic missiles. At least three more systems are in development, of which several are nearing completion and will soon be combat-ready. Beijing is now in range of Indian ballistic missiles.
Minuteman III missile in silo

Nuclear Notebook: United States nuclear forces, 2020

The US nuclear arsenal remained roughly unchanged in the last year, with the Defense Department maintaining an estimated stockpile of approximately 3,800 warheads.

Nuclear Notebook: an interactive nuclear weapons count

China Will Soon Surpass France as the World’s Third-Largest Nuclear Armed State Since 1987, the Bulletin’s Nuclear Notebook column has revealed surprise nuclear activity and spot-on arsenal estimates around the world. Researched and compiled by Hans M. Kristensen and Matt Korda of the Federation of American Scientists, the Nuclear Notebook is a critical resource for scholars, activists, and … Continued

Nuclear Notebook: Pakistan’s nuclear forces, 2011

Despite its political instability, Pakistan continues to steadily expand its nuclear capabilities and competencies; in fact, it has the world's fastest-growing nuclear stockpile. In the aftermath of the US raid that killed Osama bin Laden, who had made his hideout in an Islamabad suburb, concerns about the security of Pakistan's nuclear weapons are likely to keep pace with the growth of Pakistan's arsenal. Pakistan is building two new plutonium production reactors and a new reprocessing facility with which it will be able to fabricate more nuclear weapons fuel.

Nuclear Notebook: Worldwide Deployments of Nuclear Weapons, 2009

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons are deployed worldwide? As of the end of 2009, we estimate that there are approximately 23,360 nuclear weapons located at some 111 sites in 14 countries. Nearly one-half of these weapons are active or operationally deployed. By far the largest concentrations of nuclear weapons reside in Russia and the … Continued
Current homeland missile defense architecture. (UEWR = upgraded early warning radar.)

US ballistic missile defenses, 2019

According to the latest Missile Defense Review, the United States will continue to enhance its four primary missile defense systems without “any limitation or constraint.” Doing so is likely to be destabilizing.

Special Issue: The Global Competition for AI Dominance

Special Issue: The global competition for AI dominance  The Bulletin’s May/June issue on the global competition for dominance in artificial intelligence (AI) is now available. Here’s a sneak peek at John Mecklin’s introduction. Also in this issue you’ll also find an interview with Greg Jaczko, former director of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and a brand-new Nuclear Notebook: United … Continued

Special Issue: Conservatives and Republicans for climate action

The March/April issue is available! Polls make it clear that the American public as a whole, including a majority of Republicans, accepts the science of climate change. Still, congressional Republicans aren’t eager to agree. In the March magazine, the Bulletin talks with Republicans and conservative Christians who do support climate action about how they reconcile their politics with the scientific reality … Continued