Introduction—Russia: What to expect next?
Churchill once famously described Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” But he also said that there may be a key to understanding it.
DIGITAL MAGAZINE
November 2022
DIGITAL MAGAZINE
November 2022
Cover by Thomas Gaulkin
Introduction—Russia: What to expect next?
Churchill once famously described Russia as “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.” But he also said that there may be a key to understanding it.
After Putin – What?
Like all humans, Putin will inevitably expire someday. When that day arrives, it's uncertain what the future of Russia will be: Will it necessarily collapse? Or will Putin’s successor turn to the West and engage the country in reforms and modernization? Or has Putin already ensured that whoever happens to be his successor will be locked in to staying the current course?
Russia’s economy is much more than a “big gas station.” Under sanctions, that’s now its biggest problem.
Ironically, by sanctioning Russia, the West may actually make that country into a true petrostate that is dependent on a handful of extractive industries—making today’s caricature of Russia come true in the near future.
Putin’s psychology and nuclear weapons: the fundamentalist mindset
Vladimir Putin’s recent threats to use nuclear weapons are grounded in a psychology that is paranoid and also millennialist—focused on an imagined future that will come only after the “good” have vanquished the evil “others.” In Putin’s worldview, the profound humiliation that he believes the West has inflicted on his sense of self, both an individual and as a member of the Russian people, is an intolerable injury that must be avenged.
What do ordinary Russians think? Interview with a Russian independent reporter
What is the pulse of Russia today among average, everyday Russians?
Not your grandparents’ Cold War: Why America should emphasize economic rather than military strategies in its rivalry with China
Why America should emphasize economic rather than military strategies in its rivalry with China.
“It’s a different kind of world we’re living in now”—Interview with political scientist Francis Fukuyama
There’s a lot of authoritarian governments on the move, and they’re consolidating power. But over the long term, things look brighter—if we have the willpower, says the author of the 1990s bestseller “The End of History."
Sanctioning Russia’s oligarchs—with shame
The last few months have brought a different sanctions strategy to the fore: one aimed at stigmatizing the individuals close to Putin’s regime, in hopes of shattering elite support and encouraging revolt. These sanctions, which have led to freezing and seizures of Russian oligarchs’ assets in the West, have prompted the first murmurs of public dissent by Russian oligarchs in nearly two decades.
Despite challenges, US-Russian nuclear arms control has its benefits
New START expires in less than four years, which isn’t much time to put a replacement arms control arrangement in place. But divisive though the talks will inevitably be, the US and Russia can still reach agreement on crucial issues of concern, such as the new nuclear weapon delivery systems unveiled by Russia in 2018-2019.
Distressing a system in distress: Global nuclear order and Russia’s war against Ukraine
Russia’s use of nuclear threats as a shield and enabler for its war goes well beyond its declared nuclear doctrine.
Nuclear Notebook: The long view—Strategic arms control after the New START Treaty
This Nuclear Notebook examines the topic of strategic arms control after the expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026.
After Putin – What?
Like all humans, Putin will inevitably expire someday. When that day arrives, it's uncertain what the future of Russia will be: Will it necessarily collapse? Or will Putin’s successor turn to the West and engage the country in reforms and modernization? Or has Putin already ensured that whoever happens to be his successor will be locked in to staying the current course?
Russia’s economy is much more than a “big gas station.” Under sanctions, that’s now its biggest problem.
Ironically, by sanctioning Russia, the West may actually make that country into a true petrostate that is dependent on a handful of extractive industries—making today’s caricature of Russia come true in the near future.
Putin’s psychology and nuclear weapons: the fundamentalist mindset
Vladimir Putin’s recent threats to use nuclear weapons are grounded in a psychology that is paranoid and also millennialist—focused on an imagined future that will come only after the “good” have vanquished the evil “others.” In Putin’s worldview, the profound humiliation that he believes the West has inflicted on his sense of self, both an individual and as a member of the Russian people, is an intolerable injury that must be avenged.
What do ordinary Russians think? Interview with a Russian independent reporter
What is the pulse of Russia today among average, everyday Russians?
Not your grandparents’ Cold War: Why America should emphasize economic rather than military strategies in its rivalry with China
Why America should emphasize economic rather than military strategies in its rivalry with China.
“It’s a different kind of world we’re living in now”—Interview with political scientist Francis Fukuyama
There’s a lot of authoritarian governments on the move, and they’re consolidating power. But over the long term, things look brighter—if we have the willpower, says the author of the 1990s bestseller “The End of History."
Sanctioning Russia’s oligarchs—with shame
The last few months have brought a different sanctions strategy to the fore: one aimed at stigmatizing the individuals close to Putin’s regime, in hopes of shattering elite support and encouraging revolt. These sanctions, which have led to freezing and seizures of Russian oligarchs’ assets in the West, have prompted the first murmurs of public dissent by Russian oligarchs in nearly two decades.
Despite challenges, US-Russian nuclear arms control has its benefits
New START expires in less than four years, which isn’t much time to put a replacement arms control arrangement in place. But divisive though the talks will inevitably be, the US and Russia can still reach agreement on crucial issues of concern, such as the new nuclear weapon delivery systems unveiled by Russia in 2018-2019.
Distressing a system in distress: Global nuclear order and Russia’s war against Ukraine
Russia’s use of nuclear threats as a shield and enabler for its war goes well beyond its declared nuclear doctrine.
Nuclear Notebook: The long view—Strategic arms control after the New START Treaty
This Nuclear Notebook examines the topic of strategic arms control after the expiration of the New START Treaty in February 2026.
Cover by Thomas Gaulkin
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