The authoritative guide to ensuring science and technology make life on Earth better, not worse.

Is scientific reticence hindering climate understanding?

By David Spratt | March 12, 2025

Researchers launching balloons into the stratosphere to measure greenhouse gases over Scandinavia. Image courtesy of the European Space Agency.

Is scientific reticence hindering climate understanding?

By David Spratt | March 12, 2025

Loading...
References

Adam, D. 2007. “How Climate Change Will Affect the World.” September 20. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/sep/19/climatechange

Ahmed, N. 2014. “IPCC Reports ‘Diluted’ Under ‘Political Pressure’ to Protect Fossil Fuel Interests.” May 15. The Guardian, https://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/may/15/ipcc-un-climate-reports-diluted-protect-fossil-fuel-interests

Anderson, K. 2015. “Duality in Climate Science.” Nature Geoscience 8: 898–900. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2559

Anderson, K. 2016. “Going Beyond ‘Dangerous’ Climate Change.” February 5. London School of Economics and Political Science, https://www.lse.ac.uk/lse-player?id=3363

Berwyn, B. 2024. “New Study Suggests Major Climate Reports May Be Underestimating Drought Risks.” September 18. Inside Climate News. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18092024/major-climate-reports-may-be-underestimating-drought-flood-risks

Berwyn, B. 2023. “New IPCC Report Shows the ‘Climate Time Bomb Is Ticking,’ Says UN Secretary General António Guterres.” March 20. Inside Climate News. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/20032023/ipcc-report-ar6-climate-change

Boers, N. 2021. “Observation-based Early-warning Signals for a Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.” Nature Climate Change 11: 680–688. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4.

Breeze, N. 2021. “Professor Jason Box | Greenland today & [not for] tomorrow #COP26Glasgow.” November 12. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6LrGetz10g

Brysse, K., N. Oreskes, J. O’Reilly and M. Oppenheimer. 2013. “Climate Change Prediction: Erring on the Side of Least Drama?” Global Environmental Change 3(1): 327–337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.10.008

Ditlevsen, P. and S. Ditlevsen. 2023. “Warning of a Forthcoming Collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.” Nature Communications 14: 4254. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-39810-w.

Dooley, K., P. Christoff and K.A. Nicholas. 2018. “Co-producing Climate Policy and Negative Emissions: Trade-offs for Sustainable Land-use.” Global Sustainability 1:e3. https://doi:10.1017/sus.2018.6

Ellenbeck, S. and J. Lilliestam. 2019. “How Modelers Construct Energy Costs: Discursive Elements in Energy System and Integrated Assessment Models.” Energy Research & Social Science 47: 69–77, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2018.08.021

Garnaut, R. 2011. Update Paper 5: The Science of Climate Change, Garnaut Climate Change Review Update, Canberra: Australian Government. pp. 53–55. https://www.sprep.org/publications/garnaut-climate-change-review-update-2011-update-paper-five-the-science-of-climate-change

Geden, O. 2015. “Policy: Climate Advisers Must Maintain Integrity.” Nature 521: 27–28. https://doi.org/10.1038/521027a

Gowing. N. and C. Langdon. 2015. Thinking the Unthinkable: A New Imperative for Leadership in the Digital Age.London: Chartered Institute of Management Consultants. https://www.thinkunthink.org/media/pages/resources/c01edc6635-1707130845/thinking-the-unthinkable-report.pdf

Hansen, J. 2007. “Scientific Reticence and Sea Level Rise.” Environmental Research Letters 2: 024002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/2/2/024002

Hansen, J. 2016. “Dangerous Scientific Reticence.” March 23. e-newsletter, Columbia University. https://columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2016/20160323_DangerousReticence.pdf

IPCC 2018. “Summary for Policymakers” in Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C Above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.001

IPCC, 2019. “Summary for Policymakers” in IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate [Pörtner, H.-O., D.C. Roberts, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Zhai, M. Tignor, E. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Nicolai, A. Okem, J. Petzold, B. Rama, N.M. Weyer (eds.)]. https://www.ipcc.ch/srocc/chapter/summary-for-policymakers

Jansen, E., J.H. Christensen, T. Dokken, K.H. Nisancioglu, B.M. Vinther, E. Capron, C. Guo, M.F. Jensen, P.L. Langen, R.A. Pedersen, S. Yang, M. Bentsen, H.A. Kjær, H. Sadatzki, E. Sessford and M. Stendel 2020. “Past Perspectives on the Present Era of Abrupt Arctic Climate Change.” Nature Climate Change 10: 714–721. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0860-7

Jasanoff, S. 1998. The Fifth Branch: Science Advisers as Policymakers. Cambridge Mass.: Harvard University Press. http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674300620

Kemp, L. 2022. “Climate Endgame: Potential for Global Heating to End humanity ‘Dangerously Underexplored’.” August 1. University of Cambridge. https://cam.ac.uk/stories/climateendgame

Kemp, L., C. Xu, J. Depledge, K.L. Ebi, G. Gibbins, T.A. Kohler, J. Rockström, M. Scheffer, H.J. Schellnhuber, W. Steffen and T.M. Lenton 2022. “Climate Endgame: Exploring Catastrophic Climate Change Scenarios.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA 119 (34): e2108146119, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2108146119

Knoor, W. and W. Steffen 2020. “We climate scientists won’t know exactly how the crisis will unfold until it’s too late.” March 2. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/we-climate-scientists-wont-know-exactly-how-the-crisis-will-unfold-until-its-too-late-133400

Mercer, J. 1978. “West Antarctic Ice Sheet and CO2 Greenhouse Effect: A Threat of Disaster.” Nature 271: 321–325. https://doi.org/10.1038/271321a0

Oppenheimer, M., B.C. O’Neill, M. Webster and S. Agrawala 2007. “The Limits of Consensus.” Science 317: 1505-1506. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1144831

Pitman, A., K. Meissner and N. Abram 2021. Climate Change and Tipping Points: ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes Briefing Note 1. ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes. https://climateextremes.org.au/wp-content/uploads/bn-18-v3-201221.pdf

Pontes, G.M. and Menviel, L. 2024. “Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Driven by Subarctic Freshening Since the Mid-twentieth Century.” Nature Geoscience 17: 1291–1298. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01568-1

Quiggin, D., K. De Meyer, L. Hubble-Rose and A. Froggatt 2021. Climate Change Risk Assessment 2021. London: Chatham House. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2021/09/climate-change-risk-assessment-2021

Rahmstorf, S. 2023. “What is Happening in the Atlantic Ocean to the AMOC?” July 24. RealClimate. https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2023/07/what-is-happening-in-the-atlantic-ocean-to-the-amoc/

Rignot, E. 2014. “Global Warming: It’s a Point of No Return in West Antarctica. What Happens Next?” May 18. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/17/climate-change-antarctica-glaciers-melting-global-warming-nasa

Ripple, W.J., C. Wolf, T.M. Lenton, J.W. Gregg, S.M. Natali, P.B. Duffy, J. Rockström and H.J. Schellnhuber 2023. “Many Risky Feedback Loops Amplify the Need for Climate Action.” One Earth 6(2): 86–91. https://doi.10.1016/j.oneear.2023.01.004

Rockström, J. 2024. Post to X, August 16. https://x.com/jrockstrom/status/1824089328030511333

Rogelj. J. 2022. “How Not to Interpret the Emissions Scenarios in the IPCC Report.” March 30. Carbon Brief. https://carbonbrief.org/guest-post-how-not-to-interpret-the-emissions-scenarios-in-the-ipcc-report

Schellnhuber, H.J. 2018. “Foreword” in Spratt, D. and I. Dunlop. 2018. What Lies Beneath: The Understatement of Existential Risks. Melbourne: Breakthrough National Centre for Climate Restoration. https://www.breakthroughonline.org.au/papers

Shackley, S., P. Young, S. Parkinson and B. Wynne 1998. “Uncertainty, Complexity and Concepts of Good Science in Climate Change Modelling: Are GCMs the Best Tools? Climatic Change 38: 159–205. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1023/A:1005310109968

Turetsky, M.R., B.W. Abbott, M.C. Jones, K.W. Anthony, D. Olefeldt, E.A.G. Schuur, C. Koven, A.D. McGuire, G. Grosse, P. Kuhry, G. Hugelius, D.M. Lawrence, C. Gibson and A.B.K. Sannel 2019. “Permafrost Collapse is Accelerating Carbon Release.” Nature 569 (7754): 32–33. https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-019-01313-4

Watts, J. 2024. “February on Course to Break Unprecedented Number of Heat Records.” February 17. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/feb/17/february-on-course-to-break-unprecedented-number-of-heat-records

Together, we make the world safer.

The Bulletin elevates expert voices above the noise. But as an independent nonprofit organization, our operations depend on the support of readers like you. Help us continue to deliver quality journalism that holds leaders accountable. Your support of our work at any level is important. In return, we promise our coverage will be understandable, influential, vigilant, solution-oriented, and fair-minded. Together we can make a difference.


Get alerts about this thread
Notify of
guest

0 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

ALSO IN THIS ISSUE

RELATED POSTS