The authoritative guide to ensuring science and technology make life on Earth better, not worse.

One if by invasion, two if by coercion: US military capacity to protect Taiwan from China

By Owen R. Cote | March 10, 2022

The USS Cheyenne (SSN-773) departs Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, for a regularly scheduled Indo-Pacific deployment. Image courtesy of US Navy | Michael B. Zingaro

PREMIUM

One if by invasion, two if by coercion: US military capacity to protect Taiwan from China

By Owen R. Cote | March 10, 2022

References Converse, Blake. 2020. “First to the Fight.” Proceedings, US Naval Institute. October. https://www.usni.org/magazines/proceedings/2020/october/first-fight. Cote, O. R. 2019. “Invisible Nuclear-Armed Submarines or Transparent Oceans? Are Ballistic Missile Submarines Still the Best Deterrent for the United States.” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. January 2. Vol. 75, No. 1 (2019) pp. 30-35. https://thebulletin.org/2019/01/invisible-nuclear-armed-submarines-or-transparent-oceans-are-ballistic-missile-submarines-still-the-best-deterrent-for-the-united-states/. Hass, R., and Sacks, D. 2020. “America’s Support for Taiwan Must Be Unambiguous.” Foreign Affairs. September 2. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/american-support-taiwan-must-be-unambiguous. Haun, P. 2021. “Foundation Bias: The Impact of the US Air Corps Tactical School on United States Air Force Doctrine.” Journal of Military History. April 2021, pp. 453-474. Heginbotham et.al. 2015 The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996-2017, RAND RR-392-AF,2015, p.139. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR392.html. Office of the Secretary of Defense. 2020. “Annual Report to Congress, Military and Security Developments Involving the PRC.” https://media.defense.gov/2020/Sep/01/2002488689/-1/-1/1/2020-DOD-CHINA-MILITARY-POWER-REPORT-FINAL.PDF. Priebe, M., Vick, A. J., Heim, J.L., and Smith, M.L. 2019. “Distributed Operations in a Contested Environment: Implications for USAF Force Presentation.” Rand Corporation RR-2959-AF, 2019, pp. 66-78. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2959.html.

Together, we make the world safer.

The Bulletin elevates expert voices above the noise. But as an independent nonprofit organization, our operations depend on the support of readers like you. Help us continue to deliver quality journalism that holds leaders accountable. Your support of our work at any level is important. In return, we promise our coverage will be understandable, influential, vigilant, solution-oriented, and fair-minded. Together we can make a difference.

Make your gift now

Keywords: China, Taiwan, anti-ship missiles, bombers, coercion, escalation, innovation, invasion, submarines
Topics: Analysis

Get alerts about this thread

0 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Owen R. Cote

Owen R. Cote Jr. is the associate director of the MIT Security Studies Program and Co-Editor of the journal International Security. He has... Read More

One if by invasion, two if by coercion: US military capacity to protect Taiwan from China

One if by invasion, two if by coercion: US military capacity to protect Taiwan from China

Together, we make the world safer.

Owen R. Cote

ALSO IN THIS ISSUE

Trust but verify: How to get there by using next-generation nuclear verification and warhead dismantlement techniques

Exchanging atoms for influence: Competition in Southeast Asia’s nuclear market

Nuclear Notebook: How many nuclear weapons does Russia have in 2022?

Introduction: Can the United States and China co-exist in the 21st century? Will they?

Global and regional confrontation in South and Southeast Asia

China and the United States: It’s a Cold War, but don’t panic

RELATED POSTS

4,000 years of conflict over water: a timeline

Will AI make us crazy?

Creating a model democratic alternative to the surveillance state

The high-tech surveillance state is not restricted to China: Interview with Maya Wang of Human Rights Watch

Microchips in humans: consumer-friendly app, or new frontier in surveillance?

What a Cold War crisis over Taiwan could tell us about China-Russia relations today

Bulletin Daily

Can they control the weather? How the secretive history of weather weapons fuels conspiracy theories

Why a newly passed House “terrorism financing” bill could threaten nonprofits and free speech

Congress wants to turn the nuclear regulator into the US industry’s cheerleader—again

Why I’m not in Baku—and how to prevent further co-optation of UN climate summits

Biden allowing Ukraine to strike into Russia is much ado for little consequence

It’s November, and the Northeast is on fire

When Rome’s fountains run dry

What will be the impact of AI on the bioweapons treaty?

Don't miss an update