December 2020

DIGITAL MAGAZINE

DIGITAL MAGAZINE

December 2020

Introduction: An innovative and determined future for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

In this issue—which marks the start of the 75th year of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists—respected strategic thinkers of this era explain where the Bulletin and its readers should focus their attention in coming decades. The issue also contains noteworthy pieces from the Bulletin archives, including work by Einstein, Oppenheimer, Gorbachev, Nixon, and Kennedy.

Now and next...

Interview: Nobel chemistry laureate Jennifer Doudna on the promise and peril of the genetic editing revolution

By John Mecklin

In this interview, Bulletin editor John Mecklin asks Nobel chemistry laureate Jennifer Doudna whether she thought scientists would largely refrain from editing the inheritable human germline. Her answer: “Time will tell.”

ICAN’s Beatrice Fihn (left) and ICAN coordinator Daniel Hogsta at a press conference after the group won the Nobel Peace Prize in October 2017.

Beatrice Fihn: How to implement the nuclear weapons ban treaty

By John Mecklin

In this interview, ICAN's Beatrice Fihn lays out a possible future in which the ban treaty delegitimizes nuclear weapons, and nuclear weapons countries are persuaded to decide that it is best to give up the most fearsome weapons ever created—in those countries’ own interests.

Martin Rees, Royal Astronomer and co-founder of Cambridge University’s Center for the Study of Existential Risk.

Buckle up: We are in for a bumpy ride. An interview with Royal Astronomer Martin Rees

By Rachel Bronson

In this interview with Bulletin CEO Rachel Bronson, Royal Astronomer Martin Rees explains why he believes the 21st century will be a crucial test of humanity’s ability to manage a wide range of existential threats.

Then-Defense Secretary William Perry (with Attorney General Janet Reno) in the White House press room in 1994. (Photo by Dirck Halstead/The LIFE Images Collection via Getty Images)

How a US defense secretary came to support the abolition of nuclear weapons

By William J. Perry

In this personal essay, Perry explains how his thinking about nuclear weapons has evolved since his service in the Army of Occupation of Japan immediately after World War II.

Contending with climate change: the next 25 years

By Robert Socolow

Any successful effort to address climate change over the next 25 years will involve a “credible swap” that greatly reduces greenhouse gas emissions from the burning of fossil fuels, provides energy in different ways, and reduces demand for energy. But solutions bring disruption and risks. Well-executed solutions will be like threading a needle.

A screen shot of the AMY1 gene from Arabidopsis thaliana, a small flowering plant widely used as a model organism in plant biology. (US government photo)

How to protect the world from ultra-targeted biological weapons

By Filippa Lentzos

As genomic technologies develop and converge with AI, machine learning, automation, affective computing, and robotics, they will create the possibility of biological weapons that target particular groups of people, even individuals. Managing these technological advances will require new governance structures with cross-sectoral expertise.

Siegfried Hecker speaks to a group of young Russian and American nuclear professionals in Moscow.

Interview: Siegfried Hecker on remembering history while planning the future of nuclear arms control

By John Mecklin

In this interview, editor John Mecklin asks renowned nuclear policy expert Siegfried Hecker to suggest concrete actions world leaders can take to reduce nuclear risk. Hecker explains why attending to history is vital to success in this arena.

The edge of our existence: A particle physicist examines the architecture of society

By Yangyang Cheng

In this wide-ranging essay, the author argues that pretending to be above and beyond politics is by itself a political position; in adopting it, one has aligned with the state and sided with the powerful.

Science diplomacy: The essential interdisciplinary approach

By Rose Gottemoeller

A nonproliferation expert explains why success in nuclear diplomacy tends to come in interdisciplinary settings that involve a wide variety of scientists and policy professionals.

Transforming our nuclear future with ridiculous ideas

By Emma Belcher

Success in limiting and eventually eliminating nuclear arsenals will rely on a revitalized nuclear policy field that recognizes greater diversity in all its forms, new partners willing to share knowledge and expertise, and bold new ideas—some of which, by design, will appear ridiculous at first.

Facts and opinions about climate change

By Richard C. J. Somerville

An eminent climate expert summarizes the facts learned from the science of climate change and then gives some informed opinions about what people and governments should do.

2002: Nuclear gamblers

By Pervez Hoodbhoy

For more than a decade before India initiated nuclear testing in May 1998, the rival nuclear tribes in Pakistan and India had pleaded for converting their respective country’s covert nuclear program into an overt one. They argued that because war between two nuclear states was impossible, unsheathing the bomb would bring an era of unprecedented … Continued

Amid the Ukraine crisis, looking again at Putin, the one-man show the West doesn’t understand

By Fiona Hill

The stakes for having an accurate understanding of Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, have never been higher. A misreading could have catastrophic consequences. Here’s what other foreign leaders need to understand about who Putin is, what he wants, how he thinks, where his ideas come from, and why he annexed Crimea in 2014 and intervened in Syria in 2015.

Interview: Nobel chemistry laureate Jennifer Doudna on the promise and peril of the genetic editing revolution

By John Mecklin

1950: What the scientists are saying about the H-bomb

By Albert Einstein, Edward Teller

These companion articles were originally published in the March 1950 issue of the Bulletin, in the wake of President Harry Truman’s announcement that the United States would pursue a hydrogen bomb. They are republished here as part of our special issue commemorating the 75th year of the Bulletin.

1978: Is mankind warming the Earth?

By William W. Kellogg

This report is based on a monograph the author prepared for the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, Switzerland.

1992: What is to be done?

By Arthur C. Clarke

This time, the "unthinkable" could mean the end of nuclear weapons. Arthur C. Clarke kicks off the discussion.

The first meeting of the United Nations General Assembly, January 1946, London.

1947: How the American people feel about the atomic bomb

By Sylvia Eberhart

A 1946 survey reveals Americans' views about the atomic bomb, who should control it, and whether there was any way to defend against it.

1956: Science and our times

By J. Robert Oppenheimer

Our times have been deeply marked by science. What we think of it will shape the future. It is a great testament to man’s power and his reason; it is equally a testament to their limits. No one can have had the experience of new discovery, can have witnessed the transmutation of mystery to understanding … Continued

2012: An elemental force: Uranium production in Africa, and what it means to be nuclear

By Gabrielle Hecht

What exactly is a nuclear state? Does a uranium enrichment program suffice to make one of Iran, or are atomic bomb tests the deciding factor? Such ambiguities cannot be dismissed as doublespeak. The nuclear status of uranium is an important aspect of these ambiguities. When does uranium count as a nuclear substance? And what does Africa have to do with it? Such issues lie at the heart of today’s global nuclear order. Or disorder, as the case may be.

Robert Alvarez with Li Gun in North Korea.

2003: North Korea: No bygones at Yongbyon

By Robert Alvarez

An American visits North Korea’s Yongbyon reactor in 1994, before it became a crucial piece of North Korea's nuclear weapons program.

2011: Chernobyl 25 years later: Many lessons learned

By Mikhail Gorbachev

The former leader of the Soviet Union reflects on the nuclear radiation accident that happened on his watch.

1975: All in our time: A foul and awesome display

By Kenneth T. Bainbridge

Kenneth Bainbridge recounts his role during the first nuclear bomb test in July 1945. This is the second and final installment of his account of the test.

1995: Hiroshima Memories: One sunny day, a young girl learned about darkness

By Hideko Tamura Friedman

A chilling first-person account of the atomic bombing of Hiroshima, by a survivor.

2005: The bioterrorist cookbook

By Malcolm Dando

The chances of a massive bioterrorism attack remain low. It’s the small-scale attacks that warrant real concern.

1959: Science and art

By Martyl Langsdorf, Cyril Stanley Smith

This article is an introduction to a February 1959 issue of the Bulletin, assembled under the joint editorship of Martyl Langsdorf (who went professionally by her first name only), a Chicago artist who served as art editor of the Bulletin for many years and whose drawings enlivened its pages, and Cyril Stanley Smith, professor of metallurgy at the Institute for the Study of Metals, University of Chicago.

US President Ronald Reagan visits the Soviet Union in the waning days of the Cold War.

1992: Keep peace by pooling armies

By Randall Forsberg

Peace researcher Randall Forsberg shares her plan to take advantage of the end of the Cold War to rethink armed forces, military spending, and arms exports.

photographer at British nuke test site in Australia

1958: Only world government can prevent the war nobody can win

By Bertrand Russell

Coexistence is the only alternative to nonexistence, writes the famous philosopher.

1960 Kennedy-Nixon debate, in television studio.

1960: Science and party politics

By Richard M. Nixon, John F. Kennedy

These companion articles by presidential candidates Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy were originally published in the June 1960 issue of the Bulletin. They are republished here as part of our special issue commemorating the 75th year of the Bulletin.

1952: Ten years after

By Eugene Rabinowitch

The terrific destructive power of nuclear explosives, while restraining the outbreak of open war, does not enhance the readiness to seek reasonable solutions to conflicts of power and ideology, but instead, exacerbates them and increases the pressures of fear, hate, and suspicion.

1946: Can air or water be exploded?

By Hans Bethe

It appears that atomic bombs of present construction are safe by enormous margins against igniting either the atmosphere or the water or the earth. There are good reasons to believe that any conceivable future improvements of the bombs will still be safe in this respect.

An anti-neutron bomb demonstrator is arrested for sitting in on 5th Ave, New York, New York, August 13, 1981. (Photo by Allan Tannenbaum/Getty Images)

1961: The neutron bomb

By Freeman Dyson

A renowned physicist gives his view of the potential problems with a neutron bomb.

2004: City on fire

By Lynn Eden

By ignoring the fire damage that would result from a nuclear attack and taking into account blast damage alone, US war planners were able to demand a far larger nuclear arsenal than necessary.

Buckle up: We are in for a bumpy ride. An interview with Royal Astronomer Martin Rees

By Rachel Bronson

Beatrice Fihn: How to implement the nuclear weapons ban treaty

By John Mecklin

How a US defense secretary came to support the abolition of nuclear weapons

By William J. Perry

In this personal essay, Perry explains how his thinking about nuclear weapons has evolved since his service in the Army of Occupation of Japan immediately after World War II.

Contending with climate change: the next 25 years

By Robert Socolow

How to protect the world from ultra-targeted biological weapons

By Filippa Lentzos

Interview: Siegfried Hecker on remembering history while planning the future of nuclear arms control

By John Mecklin

The edge of our existence: A particle physicist examines the architecture of society

By Yangyang Cheng

Science diplomacy: The essential interdisciplinary approach

By Rose Gottemoeller

A nonproliferation expert explains why success in nuclear diplomacy tends to come in interdisciplinary settings that involve a wide variety of scientists and policy professionals.

Transforming our nuclear future with ridiculous ideas

By Emma Belcher

Facts and opinions about climate change

By Richard C. J. Somerville

An eminent climate expert summarizes the facts learned from the science of climate change and then gives some informed opinions about what people and governments should do.

...and way back then

1946

Can air or water be exploded?

By H. A. Bethe

1947

How the American people feel about the atomic bomb

By Sylvia Eberhart

1950

What the Scientists are Saying

By Albert Einstein and Edward Teller

President Truman announced that he had directed the Atomic Agency Commission to continue with its work on all forms of atomic energy weapons, including the so-called hydrogen bomb.

1952

Ten years after

By Eugene Rabinowitch

Henry Moore's "Nuclear Energy" sculpture at the University of Chicago.

1956

Science and our times

By J. Robert Oppenheimer

1958

Only world government can prevent the war nobody can win

By Bertrand Russell

1959

Science and Art

By Martyl Langsdorf and Cyril Stanley Smith

Detail from "Cyrus Tiffany in the Battle of Lake Erie, September 13, 1813," mural by Martyl Schweig Langsdorf in the Record of Deeds building, Washington, D.C. Photo courtesy Wikipedia.

1960

Science and party politics

By Richard M. Nixon and John F. Kennedy

1961

The neutron bomb

By Freeman Dyson

1975

All in our time: A foul and awesome display

By Kenneth T. Bainbridge

Workers prepare for the Trinity atomic bomb test. Credit: US Department of Energy.

1978

Is mankind warming the Earth?

By William W. Kellogg

A scientific crew collects airdropped supplies in the arctic. Credit: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

1992

What is to be done?

By Arthur C. Clarke

1992

Keep peace by pooling armies

By Randall Forsberg

1995

Hiroshima Memories

By Hideko Tamura Friedman

2000

North Korea: No Bygones at Yongbyon

By Robert Alvarez

2002

Nuclear gamblers

By Pervez Hoodbhoy

India and Pakistan flags with missiles and fire (Shutterstock)

2004

City on Fire

By Lynn Eden

2005

The bioterrorist cookbook

By Malcolm Dando

2011

Chernobyl 25 years later: Many lessons learned

By Mikhail Gorbachev

Commemoration in Vienna 25 years after the nuclear disaster in Chernobyl. Photo credit: Manfred Werner.

2012

An elemental force: Uranium production in Africa, and what it means to be nuclear

By Gabrielle Hecht

Rössing open pit uranium mine, Namibia. Photo credit: Ikiwaner/Wikimedia Commons

2016

Putin: The one-man show the West doesn’t understand

By Fiona Hill

Hill and co-author Clifford G. Gaddy of the Brookings Institution list six identities that they think make up Putin’s “mental outlook, his worldview” — the Statist, the History Man, the Survivalist, the Outsider, the Free Marketeer and the Case Officer.